A mysterious drone crash in Northern Mali that no one is talking about
An analysis of what we know so far.
Crash site in Northern Mali - Image: twitter.com/HousseyneAg
Ber, Mali - On Sunday February 5 2023, journalist Housseyne Ag Issa reported on his Twitter account about a suspected drone crash on February 4 2023 in remote Northern Mali.
Village of Zarho © 2023 Google Maps
The crash site is given as a point about 30km north of the village of Zarho (Ber commune, Timbuktu region).
Images: twitter.com/HousseyneAg
Due to the remote location, there was unfortunately not much picture material available first. In the Twitter post you can see pictures showing a long stretch of burnt desert ground, strewn with various pieces of debris.
(1) Looking for the crash site
Since fire must have occurred at least briefly after the crash, I checked NASA's FIRMS database, which detects and graphs heat signatures via satellite. However, there are no such signatures either on Saturday February 04 2023 (crash day) or for Sunday February 05 2023 in the greater are. So the fire must have gone out very quickly.
Sentinel-2 image © Copernicus Sentinel Data 2023. All rights reserved.
I found a possible crash site about 25km north of the mentioned village of Zarho. The burn mark is visible on a Sentinel-2 image from February 08 2023 - the crash occured 4 days before - with a length of around 140m and a width of around 20m in the desert.
Since it is in the middle of the desert, there are not many landmarks for undoubted geo-location. Because of the shape of the burn mark and the almost matching distance to Zarho given in the original tweet, I include this point in the blogpost. If you have other ideas, feel free to write me on Twitter.
Location of the possible crash site: 17.225476, -1.707398 - © 2023 Google Maps
(2) Drone operators in and around Mali
Malian Air Force: Bayraktar TB2 - Sévaré & Gao, Mali
UN Minusma: Heron 1 (operated by German Armed Forces) - Gao, Mali
French Air Force: MQ-9 “Reaper” - Niamey, Niger
US Army / AF: MQ-1C “Gray Eagle” and MQ-9 “Reaper”- Agadez & Dirkou, Niger
Algerian Air Force: Various types from China, UAE, Turkey
Listed are only operators that own drones with the range to reach the suspected crash site in remote Northern Mali.
The US Army Gray Eagle drones were spotted several times during May 2022 on FlightRadar24 operating out of Agadez, Niger - heading into the border region with Mali. Further flights into Malian airspace do not seem to be ruled out.
In February 2020, an US Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle drone was lost after suffering a mechanical failure, according to statement by AFRICOM - and crashed near its base in Agadez [1].
In Niamey, the French military stationed MQ-9 Reaper drones, which regularly operated in Mali and also carried out armed attacks. It is not known whether this still happens since the official end of “Operation Barkhane” in June 2021.
(3) The turning point
End of February, journalist -Housseyne Ag Issa- posted a batch of new much more detailed pictures. He also mentioned that al-Qaida affiliated JNIM fighters were first on scene and carried pieces away. This gave a decisive impetus to my research.
Images from the crash site - twitter.com/HousseyneAg
Left: General Atomics plate | Right: Northtrop Grumman plate
The pictures are clearly indicating that the crashed drone was manufactured in the United States: Plates with partial serial numbers of General Atomics (manufacturer of MQ-1C and MQ-9) and Northrop Grumman (manufacturer of Global Hawk drones). However, Northrop Grumman is also supplying General Atomics with parts.
Top image: L3 Harris marketing image
Bottom image: Found at the crash site - Image: twitter.com/HousseyneAg
edited by @fabsenbln (Follow me on Twitter)
We can clearly see a “Microwave Power Module (MPM)” of US-based company L3 Harris. MPMs are single components that combine a solid-state amplifier with a “Traveling wave tube (TWT)” and a power supply. TWTs are used in electronics to amplify radio frequency signals in the microwave range. L3 Harris is a known supplier of General Atomics.
(4) Tires and landing gear
Top image: Julien - britmodeller.com - Bottom image: crash site twitter.com/HousseyneAg
edited by @fabsenbln (Follow me on Twitter)
Analysis of the landing gear photos indicate that the crashed drone could be a MQ-9 “Reaper” drone. On very detailed images from a “Britmodeller” forum post [2] back in 2012 we can see the front landing gear: The front tire has a special tire tread with a distinctive riffle combined with a lettering “AERO (..)”.
Image: Tom Demerly/TheAviationist.com [3]
Left: U.S. Marines MQ-9A ER Reaper - Tom Demerly/TheAviationist.com [3]
Right: Image of a part of the crash drone - twitter.com/HousseyneAg
edited by @fabsenbln (Follow me on Twitter)
We have another photo of what appears to be a side wheel still attached to part of the landing gear. A closer look shows that this photo from the crash site is very similar with a photo of an U.S. Marines MQ-9A ER “Reaper” landing gear taken in 2022 at MCAS Miramar Airshow in San Diego, California, United States.
No armament (e.g. missiles) or remnants of it can be seen in the pictures, which indicates an unarmed reconnaissance mission.
(5) A conclusion
General Atomics MQ-9 “Reaper” - Image: U.S. MARINE CORPS
I am not a drone expert and derive my final assumptions from the results of my research. The clues are limited, for example there are no pictures of the rotor, which would make identification a bit easier. But based on the landing gear and the other components found, as well as the known drone bases in the region, I assume that it is likely an MQ-9 "Reaper" that crashed. There is still a (in my opinion) small chance that it could be a MQ-1C, but at the moment there are more matches with the MQ-9. There are many possible causes for a crash, the most likely being a serious technical defect.
But now we are still faced with the challenge of who was operating the drone? Both the French and the US military operate this type of drone in Niger, the French officially also in Mali until their "Barkhane" withdrawal in Summer 2021.
What the Malian government knows about the crash is also unknown, as there has been no media coverage. Even a month after the crash, no one has claimed responsibility for its loss. According to a Forbes report [4] from 2020, such a drone easily costs upwards of 30 million US dollars.
A French drone crashing in Mali would come just in time for the Malian transitional government's earlier accusations that France was disrespecting Mali's sovereignty. France has repeatedly stressed the danger of Islamist terrorists (JNIM and IS Sahel) in Mali and in the border region with Burkina Faso and Niger, but it is unlikely that they would enter Malian airspace. Especially since the drone's crash site is hundreds of kilometres further north. A flight there could be more easily detected by the authorities than along the border.
The US keeps its drone programme a secret. There is an agreement with the state of Niger, which also allows counter-terrorism operations on their territory. However, the US plays an even more important role in general intelligence gathering in the Sahel region. Drones certainly have a part to play in this. The “Niger Air Base 201” in Agadez, Niger is well known.
I would not rule out a US reconnaissance flight over Mali. But the crash of a US drone on Malian territory would also have caused public outrage. Especially because the transitional government maintains very good relations with Russia and even has Wagner mercenaries operating in the country. This would also be a perfect opportunity to hold the US publicly responsible. But that did not happen either.
Which means to me that the Malian transitional government itself does not have any reliable information, or that it has agreed to keep quiet with the state that operated the drone - for whatever reason.
In the end, everyone has to look at the pieces of the puzzle for themselves and form their own opinion. The factual situation does not allow for a 100% certain judgement at present. Feel free to write me your opinion!
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Very good summery, thanks for your great work. In May 2022 we could see some drone operations around Agadez because the US forgot to block them on FR24 on time. Unfortunately now they have blocked all.
Greetings from the FR24 feeder in Agadez